Chinese Currency, Renminbi: 2025 Outlook & Forex Guide

1.Chinese Currency, Renminbi: 2025 Outlook & Forex Guide
2.China’s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook in 2025
3.RMB Trend Analysis
4.The Impact of RMB Movements on Forex Trading
5.How to Trade the Chinese Currency?
6.FAQ: Common Questions About RMB Trading

Chinese Currency, Renminbi: 2025 Outlook & Forex Guide

In recent years, China’s currency has been gaining greater prominence in the international financial markets. As the world’s second-largest economy, the internationalization of the Chinese currency is advancing at a remarkable pace. According to SWIFT data from February 2025, the Renminbi has become the world’s fourth most-used payment currency, accounting for approximately 4.33% of global transactions. Driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, the proportion of trade settlements in Renminbi between China and emerging markets continues to rise.

For investors, fluctuations in the Chinese currency not only impact the profits of export-oriented companies but also present diverse opportunities for forex speculation and hedging.

What Is China’s Currency? A Basic Understanding of the Renminbi

“Chinese currency” primarily refers to the Renminbi (RMB, currency code: CNY), the legal tender issued by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). It is important to note that the Renminbi is divided into onshore RMB (CNY) and offshore RMB (CNH). While both represent the same currency, differences in market mechanisms lead to slight variations in their exchange rates.

  • CNY (Onshore RMB):Tightly regulated by the PBOC and primarily used within Mainland China.
  • CNH (Offshore RMB):Freely traded in offshore markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, with greater exchange rate volatility.
Comparison Item CNY CNH
Trading Hours 9:30-23:30 24 hours
Liquidity Sources Domestic Banks International Institutions
Average Volatility in 2024 0.8% 1.2%

China’s exchange rate regime is a managed floating exchange rate system. The PBOC sets a daily central parity rate, allowing the exchange rate to fluctuate within a ±2% band. This approach offers a balance between stability and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing.

China’s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook in 2025

As 2025 unfolds, China’s monetary policy has become increasingly flexible and strategic. Since late 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted multiple operations using the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) and implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to stabilize market liquidity. These actions aim to stimulate domestic demand and support the struggling real estate and export sectors.

Ongoing Expansion of the Digital Yuan (CBDC) Pilot

As of Q1 2025, China’s digital currency—the digital yuan (CBDC)—has been piloted in over 30 cities across Mainland China and extended to Hong Kong, Macau, and selected cross-border trade platforms. This new form of Chinese currency may become a key driver of the Renminbi’s internationalization in the future.

RMB Pressure from Inverted US-China Interest Rate Spread

In 2025, the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation, while China leans toward an accommodative monetary stance. This divergence has led to a prolonged inversion in the US-China interest rate spread, exerting downward pressure on the RMB. By March 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate had once again approached 7.30.

Foreign Reserves and Exchange Rate Defense

China’s foreign exchange reserves remained steady at USD 3.15 trillion at the beginning of 2025. While the PBOC retains the capability to stabilize the exchange rate, it is unlikely to intervene without limit. According to Bloomberg reports, Chinese authorities may treat the 7.35 level as a key exchange rate defense line, using counter-cyclical factors as a signaling mechanism to the market.

RMB Trend Analysis

Historical Trend Review

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the RMB has undergone significant two-way volatility. In 2022, due to successive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the RMB weakened beyond 7.30 against the US dollar. In 2023, as China’s economy gradually recovered, the currency saw a short-term rebound. However, in 2024, global demand weakened and US-China trade tensions resurfaced, causing the RMB to depreciate again, fluctuating within a range of 6.85 to 7.40 throughout the year.

▲USD/RMB Historical Trend

Historical Trend Overview

Over the past decade, the Chinese currency has shown a “policy-driven + market-reactive” pattern of volatility. For instance:

  • August 2015 Devaluation: A currency reform triggered market panic, and the RMB fell to 6.4.
  • During the 2018 Trade War: The RMB depreciated to around 6.95.
  • 2022 Fed Rate Hike Cycle: The CNH dropped below 7.3.

Currently, the monthly chart of the RMB shows Fibonacci retracement support near 7.35. If this level is breached, the next upside target is 7.50. However, if the PBOC steps in with strong intervention, a pullback toward the 6.85 resistance level may occur.

Potential RMB Support and Resistance Factors in 2025

Support factors:

  • The Chinese government increasing infrastructure spending
  • Continued net inflows of foreign capital into the bond market
  • Improved offshore RMB liquidity

Pressure factors:

  • Delayed Fed rate cut timeline
  • Heightened US-China geopolitical tensions
  • Persistent domestic deflation risk not yet fully resolved

Key Technical Levels

According to technical indicators:

  • RSI:The current Relative Strength Index for the RMB is around 45, indicating a slightly bearish to neutral stance.
  • MACD:The short-term moving average has crossed below the long-term average, forming a bearish setup.
  • Trendline:The early 2025 high sits at 7.25. If the 7.10 support level is breached, the RMB could retest 7.00 in the short term.

Traders are advised to closely monitor the USD/RMB daily chart and align entries with key economic data release timings.

The Impact of RMB Movements on Forex Trading

As a key indicator of China’s currency performance, RMB fluctuations have a significant ripple effect on the global forex market, particularly among Asia-Pacific currencies. Below are some common strategies and suggestions:

  • Speculative Trading:Through the USD/CNH currency pair, investors can engage in high-leverage trading to capitalize on short-term RMB volatility.
  • Hedging: Exporters and importers can use forward contracts or options to hedge against RMB exchange rate risks.
  • Regional Currency Correlation:RMB depreciation often triggers simultaneous weakening in currencies like the Japanese yen (JPY), South Korean won (KRW), and New Taiwan dollar (TWD), creating cross-pair trading opportunities.

Risk Management Tips During High Volatility

  • Set both stop-loss and take-profit levels to avoid emotional trading
  • Manage position leverage carefully to reduce margin call risk
  • Use demo accounts to backtest strategies and build experience

How to Trade the Chinese Currency?

As a professional forex broker, Ultima Markets (UM) offers a comprehensive solution for trading the Chinese currency, helping investors capture profit opportunities amid volatility.

Powerful Platform Features:

  • Supports RMB currency pair trading, including major pairs like USD/CNH and EUR/CNH
  • High leverage trading (up to 1:2000), ultra-low spreads (as low as 0.0 pips for ECN accounts)
  • Fast execution speedswith average latency under 20 milliseconds
  • Equipped with Trading Central technical analysis toolsfor real-time entry and exit signals

Comprehensive Educational and Demo Resources:

  • Free demo accounts with up to $100,000 in virtual funds
  • Live market commentary and technical chart analysis
  • Beginner tutorials and strategy labs for traders of all levels

Absolute Fund Protection:

  • Client funds held with Westpac Bank in Australia
  • Funds are fully segregatedfrom company operations
  • Backed by the Financial Commission’s compensation fund, offering up to €20,000 per client
  • Additional insurance coverage of up to $1,000,000

Limited-Time Promotions:

  • Earn an extra 1% profit on every closed trade before July 1, 2025
  • Multiple deposit options supported, includingcredit cards, cryptocurrencies, e-wallets, and wire transfers
Unlock Trading Account Now!

FAQ: Common Questions About RMB Trading

Q1: Can Taiwanese citizens open a CNH account?

Yes, they can open an offshore account via a Hong Kong bank or trade CNH directly through the UM platform.

Q2: Should I buy or sell RMB when it depreciates?

It depends on the context. If a policy reversal is anticipated, buying at a low could be a strategic opportunity.

Q3: Do China’s foreign exchange controls affect forex trading?

Controls mainly target capital account flows and have limited impact on CNH trading through platforms.

Q4: How much capital is needed to trade RMB on Ultima Markets?

The minimum trade size is just 0.01 lots. Beginners can also practice risk-free with a demo account.

Conclusion: Track China’s Currency to Expand Your Global Investment Vision

As the global financial landscape becomes increasingly complex in 2025, China’s currency reflects more than domestic economics—it plays a growing role in international capital markets. RMB trends will continue to be shaped by global policy shifts, Fed interest rates, and Chinese economic indicators.

Investors who can accurately track RMB developments—paired with a reliable platform like Ultima Markets—will not only hedge effectively but also seize profit opportunities across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Master the RMB, and you master a key to the future of global investing.

Glossary

Get started or expand your knowledge of trading at any level with a wealth of financial industry terms and definitions that you won’t find anywhere else.

Bookmarked Trading Term(s)

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  • AMM (Automated Money Market)

    A decentralized system that uses algorithms to automatically manage liquidity and trading in financial markets without traditional market makers.

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  • APR (Annual Percentage Rate)

    The yearly interest rate a trader pays on borrowed funds or e arns on investments, excluding compounding.

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  • APY (Annual Percentage Yield)

    The yearly interest rate a trader earns, including compounding, which reflects the real return on an investment.

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  • Asymmetric Cryptography

    A security method using two different keys (public and private) to encrypt and decrypt data, ensuring secure transactions.

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  • Asymmetric Encryption

    The apportionment of premiums and discounts on forward exchange transactions that relate directly to deposit swap (interest arbitrage) deals, over the period of each deal.

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  • Atomic Swap

    A direct peer-to-peer exchange of different cryptocurrencies without the need for intermediaries, reducing counterparty risk.

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  • Balance Of Trade

    The value of a country's exports minus its imports.

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  • Bar Chart

    A type of chart which consists of four significant points: the high and the low prices, which form the vertical bar; the opening price, which is marked with a horizontal line to the left of the bar; and the closing price, which is marked with a horizontal line to the right of the bar.

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  • Barrier Level

    A certain price of great importance included in the structure of a Barrier Option. If a Barrier Level price is reached, the terms of a specific Barrier Option call for a series of events to occur.

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  • Barrier Option

    Any number of different option structures (such as knock-in, knock-out, no touch, double-no-touch-DNT) that attaches great importance to a specific price trading. In a no-touch barrier, a large defined payout is awarded to the buyer of the option by the seller if the strike price is not 'touched' before expiry. This creates an incentive for the option seller to drive prices through the strike level and creates an incentive for the option buyer to defend the strike level.

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  • Base Currency

    The first currency in a currency pair. It shows how much the base currency is worth as measured against the second currency. For example, if the USD/CHF (U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc) rate equals 1.6215, then one USD is worth CHF 1.6215. In the forex market, the US dollar is normally considered the base currency for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair. The primary exceptions to this rule are the British pound, the euro and the Australian dollar.

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  • Cable

    The GBP/USD (Great British Pound/U.S. Dollar) pair. Cable earned its nickname because the rate was originally transmitted to the US via a transatlantic cable beginning in the mid 1800s when the GBP was the currency of international trade.

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  • Cad

    The Canadian dollar, also known as Loonie or Funds.

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  • Call Option

    A currency trade which exploits the interest rate difference between two countries. By selling a currency with a low rate of interest and buying a currency with a high rate of interest, the trader will receive the interest difference between the two countries while this trade is open.

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  • Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers (Cipm) Index

    A monthly gauge of Canadian business sentiment issued by the Richard Ivey Business School.

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  • Candlestick Chart

    A chart that indicates the trading range for the day as well as the opening and closing price. If the open price is higher than the close price, the rectangle between the open and close price is shaded. If the close price is higher than the open price, that area of the chart is not shaded.

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  • Day Trader

    Speculators who take positions in commodities and then liquidate those positions prior to the close of the same trading day.

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  • Day Trading

    Making an open and close trade in the same product in one day.

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  • Deal

    A term that denotes a trade done at the current market price. It is a live trade as opposed to an order.

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  • Dealer

    An individual or firm that acts as a principal or counterpart to a transaction. Principals take one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party. In contrast, a broker is an individual or firm that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers for a fee or commission.

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  • Dealing Spread

    The difference between the buying and selling price of a contract.

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  • Ecb

    European Central Bank, the central bank for the countries using the euro.

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  • Economic Indicator

    A government-issued statistic that indicates current economic growth and stability. Common indicators include employment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, retail sales, etc.

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  • End Of Day Order (eod)

    An order to buy or sell at a specified price that remains open until the end of the trading day.

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  • Est/Edt

    The time zone of New York City, which stands for United States Eastern Standard Time/Eastern Daylight time.

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  • Estx50

    A name for the Euronext 50 index.

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  • Factory Orders

    The dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report is more in depth than the durable goods report which is released earlier in the month.

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  • Fed

    The Federal Reserve Bank, the central bank of the United States, or the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the policy-setting committee of the Federal Reserve.

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  • Fed Officials

    Refers to members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve or regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents.

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  • Figure/The Figure

    Refers to the price quotation of '00' in a price such as 00-03 (1.2600-03) and would be read as 'figure-three.' If someone sells at 1.2600, traders would say 'the figure was given' or 'the figure was hit.

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  • Fill

    When an order has been fully executed.

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  • G7

    Group of 7 Nations - United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada.

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  • G8

    Group of 8 - G7 nations plus Russia.

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  • Gap Gapping

    A quick market move in which prices skip several levels without any trades occurring. Gaps usually follow economic data or news announcements.

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  • Gearing (Also Known As Leverage)

    Gearing refers to trading a notional value that is greater than the amount of capital a trader is required to hold in his or her trading account. It is expressed as a percentage or a fraction.

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  • Ger30

    An index of the top 30 companies (by market capitalization) listed on the German stock exchange – another name for the DAX.

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  • Handle

    Every 100 pips in the FX market starting with 000.

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  • Hawk/Hawkish

    A country's monetary policymakers are referred to as hawkish when they believe that higher interest rates are needed, usually to combat inflation or restrain rapid economic growth or both.

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  • Hedge

    A position or combination of positions that reduces the risk of your primary position.

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  • Hit The Bid

    To sell at the current market bid.

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  • Hk50/Hkhi

    Names for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index.

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  • Illiquid

    Little volume being traded in the market; a lack of liquidity often creates choppy market conditions. 

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  • Imm

    The IMM, or International Monetary Market, is a part of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with trading currency and interest rate futures and options.

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  • Imm Futures

    A traditional futures contract based on major currencies against the US dollar. IMM futures are traded on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

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  • Imm Session

    8:00am - 3:00pm New York.

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  • Indu

    Abbreviation for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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  • Japanese Economy Watchers Survey

    Measures the mood of businesses that directly service consumers such as waiters, drivers and beauticians. Readings above 50 generally signal improvements in sentiment.

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  • Japanese Machine Tool Orders

    Measures the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers. Machine tool orders are a measure of the demand for companies that make machines, a leading indicator of future industrial production. Strong data generally signals that manufacturing is improving and that the economy is in an expansion phase.

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  • Jpn225

    A name for the NEKKEI index.

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  • Keep The Powder Dry

    To limit your trades due to inclement trading conditions. In either choppy or extremely narrow markets, it may be better to stay on the sidelines until a clear opportunity arises.

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  • Kiwi

    Nickname for NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar).

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  • Knock-Ins

    Option strategy that requires the underlying product to trade at a certain price before a previously bought option becomes active. Knock-ins are used to reduce premium costs of the underlying option and can trigger hedging activities once an option is activated.

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  • Knock-Outs

    Option that nullifies a previously bought option if the underlying product trades a certain level. When a knock-out level is traded, the underlying option ceases to exist and any hedging may have to be unwound.

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  • Last Dealing Day

    The last day you may trade a particular product.

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  • Last Dealing Time

    The last time you may trade a particular product.

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  • Leading Indicators

    Statistics that are considered to predict future economic activity.

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  • Level

    A price zone or particular price that is significant from a technical standpoint or based on reported orders/option interest.

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  • Leverage

    Also known as margin, this is the percentage or fractional increase you can trade from the amount of capital you have available. It allows traders to trade notional values far higher than the capital they have. For example, leverage of 100:1 means you can trade a notional value 100 times greater than the capital in your trading account.*

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  • Macro

    The longest-term trader who bases their trade decisions on fundamental analysis. A macro trade’s holding period can last anywhere from around six months to multiple years.

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  • Manufacturing Production

    Measures the total output of the manufacturing aspect of the Industrial Production figures. This data only measures the 13 sub-sectors that relate directly to manufacturing. Manufacturing makes up approximately 80% of total Industrial Production.

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  • Market Call

    A request from a broker or dealer for additional funds or other collateral on a position that has moved against the customer.

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  • Market Maker

    A dealer who regularly quotes both bid and ask prices and is ready to make a two-sided market for any financial product.

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  • Market Order

    An order to buy or sell at the current price.

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  • Nas100

    An abbreviation for the NASDAQ 100 index.

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  • Net Position

    The amount of currency bought or sold which has not yet been offset by opposite transactions.

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  • New York Session

    8:00am – 5:00pm (New York time).

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  • No Touch

    An option that pays a fixed amount to the holder if the market never touches the predetermined Barrier Level.

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  • Nya.X

    Symbol for NYSE Composite index.

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  • Offer (Also Known As The Ask Price)

    The price at which the market is prepared to sell a product. Prices are quoted two-way as Bid/Offer. The Offer price is also known as the Ask. The Ask represents the price at which a trader can buy the base currency, which is shown to the right in a currency pair. For example, in the quote USD/CHF 1.4527/32, the base currency is USD, and the ask price is 1.4532, meaning you can buy one US dollar for 1.4532 Swiss francs. 

    In CFD trading, the Ask represents the price a trader can buy the product. For example, in the quote for UK OIL 111.13/111.16, the product quoted is UK OIL and the ask price is £111.16 for one unit of the underlying market.

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  • Offered

    If a market is said to be trading offered, it means a pair is attracting heavy selling interest, or offers.

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  • Offsetting Transaction

    A trade that cancels or offsets some or all of the market risk of an open position.

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  • On Top

    Attempting to sell at the current market order price.

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  • One Cancels The Other Order (oco)

    A designation for two orders whereby if one part of the two orders is executed, then the other is automatically cancelled.

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  • Paid

    Refers to the offer side of the market dealing.

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  • Pair

    The forex quoting convention of matching one currency against the other.

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  • Paneled

    A very heavy round of selling.

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  • Parabolic

    A market that moves a great distance in a very short period of time, frequently moving in an accelerating fashion that resembles one half of a parabola. Parabolic moves can be either up or down.

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  • Partial Fill

    When only part of an order has been executed.

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  • Quantitative Easing

    When a central bank injects money into an economy with the aim of stimulating growth.

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  • Quarterly Cfds

    When a central bank injects money into an economy with the aim of stimulating growth.

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  • Quote

    An indicative market price, normally used for information purposes only.

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  • Rally

    A recovery in price after a period of decline.

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  • Range

    When a price is trading between a defined high and low, moving within these two boundaries without breaking out from them.

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  • Rate

    The price of one currency in terms of another, typically used for dealing purposes.

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  • Rba

    Reserve Bank of Australia, the central bank of Australia.

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  • Rbnz

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the central bank of New Zealand.

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  • Sec

    The Securities and Exchange Commission.

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  • Sector

    A group of securities that operate in a similar industry.

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  • Sell

    Taking a short position in expectation that the market is going to go down.

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  • Settlement

    The process by which a trade is entered into the books, recording the counterparts to a transaction. The settlement of currency trades may or may not involve the actual physical exchange of one currency for another.

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  • Shga.X

    Symbol for the Shanghai A index

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  • Takeover

    Assuming control of a company by buying its stock.

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  • Technical Analysis

    The process by which charts of past price patterns are studied for clues as to the direction of future price movements.

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  • Technicians/techs

    Traders who base their trading decisions on technical or charts analysis.

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  • Ten (10) Yr

    US government-issued debt which is repayable in ten years. For example, a US 10-year note.

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  • Thin

    A illiquid, slippery or choppy market environment. A light-volume market that produces erratic trading conditions.

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  • Ugly

    Describing unforgiving market conditions that can be violent and quick.

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  • Uk Average Earnings Including Bonus/ Excluding Bonus

    Measures the average wage including/excluding bonuses paid to employees. This is measured quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from the previous year.

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  • Uk Claimant Count Rate

    Measures the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. The claimant count figures tend to be lower than the unemployment data since not all of the unemployed are eligible for benefits.

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  • Uk Hbos House Price Index

    Measures the relative level of UK house prices for an indication of trends in the UK real estate sector and their implication for the overall economic outlook. This index is the longest monthly data series of any UK housing index, published by the largest UK mortgage lender (Halifax Building Society/Bank of Scotland).

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  • Uk Jobless Claims Change

    Measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits over the previous month.

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  • Value Date

    Also known as the maturity date, it is the date on which counterparts to a financial transaction agree to settle their respective obligations, i.e., exchanging payments. For spot currency transactions, the value date is normally two business days forward.

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  • Variation Margin

    Funds traders must hold in their accounts to have the required margin necessary to cope with market fluctuations.

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  • Vix Or Volatility Index

    Shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge."

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  • Volatility

    Referring to active markets that often present trade opportunities.

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  • Wedge Chart Pattern

    Chart formation that shows a narrowing price range over time, where price highs in an ascending wedge decrease incrementally, or in a descending wedge, price declines are incrementally smaller. Ascending wedges typically conclude with a downside breakout and descending wedges typically terminate with upside breakouts.

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  • Whipsaw

    Slang for a highly volatile market where a sharp price movement is quickly followed by a sharp reversal.

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  • Wholesale Price

    Measures the changes in prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Inflationary pressures typically show earlier than the headline retail.

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  • Working Order

    Where a limit order has been requested but not yet filled.

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  • Wsj

    Acronym for The Wall Street Journal.

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  • Xag/Usd

    Symbol for Silver Index.

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  • Xau/Usd

    Symbol for Gold Index.

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  • Xax.X

    Symbol for AMEX Composite Index.

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  • YER

    Yemeni Rial. The currency of Yemen. It is subdivided into 100 fils.

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  • Yemeni Rial

    See YER.

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  • Yen

    See JPY.

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  • Yield

    Yield is the return on an investment and is usually expressed as a percentage.

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  • Yuan Renminbi

    See CNY

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  • ZAR

    Rand. The currency of South Africa. It is subdivided into 100 cents.

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  • ZMW

    Zambian Kwacha. The currency of Zambia. It is subdivided into 100 Ngwee.

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  • ZWL

    Zimbabwe Dollar. The currency of Zimbabwe. It is subdivided into 100 cents.

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  • Zambian Kwacha

    See ZMW.

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  • ZigZag

    A technical indicator that draws tops and bottoms - filtering out noise.

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  • Zimbabwe Dollar

    See ZWL.

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    Bookmarked Trading Term(s)

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