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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUDUSD for OCT 17th, 2024.
Key Takeaways
Australia employment market: Australia’s employment in September unexpectedly rose again. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the net employment in September increased by 64,100 from August, which was much higher than the market’s expected increase of 25,000, and most of the increase came from full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment participation rate rose slightly to a record high of 67.2%. The data shows that the current Australian job market is strong, which reinforces the tight labor market and inflation is still expected to rise.
Stubborn price pressure: Unlike other major economies, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still maintained the interest rate at a high level of 4.35% in its interest rate decision at the end of September. The RBA tried to suppress stubborn price pressure. Previously, the market once believed that the RBA had misjudged the situation. Today’s employment data proved that Australia’s price level still has the momentum to continue to rise against the background of strong employment. The market has significantly weakened its bets on the RBA to cut interest rates. The RBA may not cut interest rates before the end of February next year.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
(AUDUSD Daily Price Chart, Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic oscillator: Both the fast and slow indicators have fallen to the oversold area, suggesting that the current bearish trend is strong. It is worth noting that the fast line is about to cross the slow line to send a bullish signal, and there may be a rebound probability in the short-term exchange rate.
Wolfe Wave: From July to September this year, the Australian dollar completed the Wolfe wave against the US dollar, and then after a clear false breakout pattern appeared, the exchange rate fell below the line connecting points 1 and 3 and went down all the way. At present, the exchange rate has reached the theoretical first target level – the point 4 horizontal price. This price is also near the green 200-day MA, so the short-term Australian dollar rebound is strong. However, if the exchange rate continues to break down, look at the extension of points 1 and 4.
H1 Chart Insights
(AUDUSD H1 Price Chart, Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a bullish signal above the oversold area, suggesting that the recent short-term strength is insufficient. At the same time, after the exchange rate hit a new low, the indicator showed a bottom divergence pattern. The Australian dollar will mainly rebound and rise during the day.
Bottom pattern: The Australian dollar rebounded strongly during the Asian session and is about to approach the lower edge of the falling triangle this week, which is the key long-short conversion line in the near future. After the exchange rate reaches it, it is likely to be blocked and adjusted, forming a W bottom or even a head and shoulders bottom bottoming pattern. After the exchange rate breaks through the bottom pattern, it is worth paying attention to the long opportunity.
Pivot Indicator
(AUDUSD M30 Price Chart, Ultima Markets APP)
According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.6638,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.6638, first target 0.6705, second target 0.6725;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.6638, first target 0.6605, second target 0.6586.
Conclusion
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